Modelling the dynamics of West Nile Virus

Abstract

In this work we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection between vector (mosquito) and avian population. We find the Basic Reproductive Number R-0 in terms of measurable epidemiological and demographic parameters. R-0 is the threshold condition that determines the dynamics of WNV infection: if R-0 < 1 the disease fades out, and for R-0 > 1 the disease remains endemic. Using experimental and field data we estimate R-0 for several species of birds. Numerical simulations of the temporal course of the infected bird proportion show damped oscillations approaching the endemic value. (c) 2005 Society for Mathematical Biology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.