Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae

Abstract

Although climate change and its implications are a freequent subject of detailed study, the effects of these changes on species' geographic distributions remain little explored. We present a first crossspecies analysis of the effects of global climate change on the distributions of one bird family, the Cracidae, in Mexico, based on projecting models of ecological niches freom present conditions to modeled future conditions taken freom general circulation models of climate change. Based on two different scenarios of climate change and on three assumptions regarding species' dispersal abilities, effects on species' distributions range freom drastic reduction to modest increases. These results illustrate the complex nature of species' geographic responses to environmental change, and emphasize the need for detailed analysis of individual species' ecological requirements. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.