Testing predictability criteria in avalanches

Abstract

We study a cellular automaton that presents a behavior similar to that of avalanches in sand piles. The size distribution of these events presents a clear separation between small and large avalanches

the former showing a power-law kind of behavior common to these systems. In this article we compare different schemes of possible predictions of the large events. One, using an algorithm proposed by Rosendahl, Vekic, and Rutledge [Phys. Rev. Lett. 73, 537 (1994)], follows the activities of small avalanches between consecutive large avalanches

others analyze the distribution of time intervals between consecutive large events, and the distribution of small events between consecutive large avalanches.